Zero-Day: Unpacking the Russian Invasion
By Noah Penders — Associate, Decisive Point // Feb. 24th, 2022
A rapidly developing situation:
The initial draft of this analysis focused on the ‘What Ifs?’ surrounding the brewing maelstrom developing along the Ukrainian-Russian border. Prior assumptions were grounded on the likelihood of whether Russia would move beyond Donetsk and Luhansk, and into Kyiv. Those assumptions have been answered. The Russian ‘peacekeeping mission’ is now globally recognized as a fully-fledged and intentful invasion. As will be discussed, Russian advances into sovereign Ukrainian territory have been kinetic, encompassing, and destructive. The focus of this amended analysis will now discuss the ‘What Nows?’ The world you woke up to this morning is a far different one than the one you knew yesterday. It will be crucially important to understand the motives, the responses, and the outcomes that have underpinned, will direct, and ideally resolve this crisis.
Earlier this week, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, recognized the sovereignty of two disputed eastern regions of Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, respectively. This decision, ultimately reached by Putin, and approved within unanimous consent of the Russian Parliament, is both the culminating act following weeks of border tensions between the two European countries and may also be the opening volley of a potentially bitter State conflict. In immediate hindsight, it can be concluded that this assumption was correct.
Throughout the early morning hours of February 24, 2022, less than 24 hours after the Kremlin promised overwhelming military support to the separatist statelets, Russia began a blitzkrieg style of air raids across major Ukrainian cities, military bases, and critical infrastructure sites. Important civil and military locations far from the heat of the disputed regions, such as Odesa, Kyiv, and Maruipol, awoke to skies filled with black clouds left from the remaining ordnance of drone strikes and cruise missiles.
This initial frontal assault is backed by approximately 190,000 armed personnel, with supporting ground and air assets, along eastern Ukraine’s border. These ground forces are active as well, yet reports are still uneven in agreement if Russian troops have made significant forward progress. Active skirmishes have been noted along Ukraine’s northwestern border, with fighting reported to have erupted around Chernobyl. This reporting is significant, primarily noting that it is believed that hostile Russian ground units have been tentatively identified as having taken control of the nuclear power plant in the area. This foreshadows only the beginning of the intense combat that is expected to follow and reveals the strategic ideals that are underpinning the Kremlin’s advance.
Following Mr. Putin’s recognition of territorial sovereignty for the alleged separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stressed diplomacy as a primary mitigation technique. Similarly, Western leaders from the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany, had echoed similar pleas for a civil and blood-less resolve to the ongoing escalations. These wishes stumbled into the ether of hollow bureaucratic sentiments no soon after they were uttered. Ukraine has now officially severed diplomatic relations with Russia. Western nations, as named above, have executed economic sanctions and halts to key energy export deals (Nord Stream 2), but these initial tools of coercion have thus far lacked any and all bite.
More is needed from the West. Hopefully, a greater, unified response will follow. NATO member States, such as Poland, Latvia, and Estonia have invoked Article 4 of the NATO Charter, triggering the formation of an emergency joint meeting of NATO members. Fears among the governments and residents that triggered Article 4 are both valid and necessary. The aims and intentions of Mr. Putin are unknown, and his regime began their continental assault by targeting the second largest European country. Despite this, Russian forces have swiftly executed barrage after barrage, and appear to be marching through foreign territory at feverishly proficient rates. Other neighboring States have every valid reason to worry, and the uninspiring Western commitments offer little hope that defensive protection will extend beyond domestic shores.
The growing sentiment among those in Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington is that events will continue to metastasize. In the 24 hour period since Mr. Putin threw the combined weight of Russian armed forces behind the Kremlin-backed statelets, shelling in border regions has increased in tempo, evacuation orders have been issued to remaining citizens, and Ukraine has declared a state of emergency; mobilizing its near full capacity of reservist forces (estimated 200,000 at total strength), acknowledging the inevitability of war in Europe. No head of State, besides Mr. Putin, appears eager to initiate another European continental conflict. However, the corporal consequences of this evolving conflict are far from certain.
