The EU’s Ukrainian Dilemma
Russia’s military buildup in Ukraine has continued in recent weeks, with Russia deploying advanced air defense systems and conducting military exercises near the border. This has led to increased tension between Russia and NATO as the US and its allies threaten Russia with sanctions if they continue to advance their position and invade Ukraine.
This presents a dilemma for the EU, as many of its member nations are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. France, in particular, has been criticized for continuing to sell warships to Russia despite the conflict in Ukraine. Germany has been more cautious, but there is a risk that the EU will fracture over how to respond to Russia’s aggression.
As the developments in Ukraine continue to unfold, it is clear that Russia’s actions have created a serious divide within NATO. The EU must find a way to stand together and oppose Russian aggression while evading sanctions that could hurt its members’ economies.
The proposed sanctions would include economic measures and a ban on exports of military technology to Russia. The intent of these sanctions is to persuade Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine and resolve the crisis peacefully. However, Russia has shown no indication that it intends to back down, as it weighs the consequences of potential sanctions against its strategic objectives in Ukraine.
Caught up in the escalating tensions between NATO and Russia, the EU shows signs of fracture over whether to support NATO’s actions or oppose them. If the EU opposes the sanctions, it could damage its relationship with NATO and weaken its position in future negotiations with Russia. However, if the EU supports the sanctions, it could damage its trade relationships with Russia and cause economic hardship for its citizens.
Europe is heavily reliant on Russian oil, and Russia has been using its oil exports as a political tool in recent years. In 2006, Russia stopped the flow of oil to Lithuania in retaliation for that country’s support of U.S. sanctions against Russia. In early 2014, Russia threatened to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine if it didn’t pay its $2 billion debt. This dependency on Russian oil comes down to geography: Russia is one of the few countries with enough oil and gas reserves to supply Europe. And Russia has been increasingly willing to use its oil and gas exports as a political lever.
The situation in Ukraine is putting Europe in a difficult position. As the U.S. has pushed for heavy-handed sanctions against Russia, many European countries are hesitant to antagonize their neighbor and a major supplier of energy. So far, the EU has imposed limited sanctions on Russia, but it’s unclear whether they will be enough to change Putin’s behavior.
Since Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in 2014, the United States has maintained a steadfast position of support for the Ukrainian people and their right to self-determination. In the face of Russia’s aggressive actions, the U.S. has led the international community in imposing sanctions on Russia that have crippled its economy. The United States also provides training and assistance to the Ukrainian military in their fight against Russian-backed separatists.
The conflict in Ukraine has also led to a renewed debate over NATO’s role in Europe. Russia has long opposed NATO’s expansion into former Soviet states, and the conflict in Ukraine has given Russia new ammunition to argue against NATO’s presence in eastern Europe.
Russia perceives NATO as a threat to its national security and began a build-up military capability for years, increasing defense spending from $18 billion per year before 1999 (when NATO expanded) to almost $90 billion per year today. With this increased militarization over time, Russia feels they are entitled to take more aggressive action against other countries including annexing Crimea out of fear that NATO will move into Russia and threaten their sovereignty.
The situation is further complicated as Russia continues to use its vast energy resources as a weapon to force EU compliance with their demands. While the EU has made efforts to decrease their energy dependence on Russian oil, these measures have done little to defuse tensions. As the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, the EU will have to decide if they are willing to risk a conflict with Russia in order to protect their interests.
