Redefining “Near-Peer” Conflict
Russia’s missteps have altered the landscape of great power competition
In prior weeks we’ve seen the devastation and carnage that has largely been absent from modern warfare in this century. As we’ve followed the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine, there have been several revelations about Putin’s forces that should elicit a degree of reflection from the American public.
First, as the Russian advance was met with stiff resistance from Ukrainian forces, the Russian military has displayed what can only be classified as a lack of unified command and control, seemingly incompetent combat logistics planning, and failure to effectively implement coordinated cyber, ground, and air operations. Falling well short of the expected capabilities, the Russian military has proven itself to be a paper tiger, forced to revert to tactics of last century’s major conflicts — indiscriminate shelling of civilian and protected targets, siege warfare of major population centers, and contested skies following the failed suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) efforts in the opening hours of the invasion.
Let’s recall that in recent years military strategists and planners have largely discounted the possibility of this kind of incursion into a developed nation, instead pointing to long-range fires, deep penetration raids, and hyper-enabled warfare. These assumptions were generally based on the expectation that global surveillance from both government and commercial satellites, now ubiquitous, would prevent the massing of troops and hardware from going undetected. However, what the experts had not planned for was that an adversary would act with such audacity as to mass forces in display and defiance of the rest of the world and that western leaders would repeat the mistakes of the last World War and follow a path of appeasement in the face of aggression.
This is not to say that warfare between near-peer adversaries will not rely on the fantastic capabilities of the future. However, given the capabilities that the Russian military has put on display for a global audience, we would be wise to drop all pretense — for now, all discussions of America’s near-peer foes can be distilled down to considerations for a potential future conflict with China. You can be sure they are learning from Russia’s missteps.
